What’s going on with the market these days?

A February 16 article from DataQuick, the San Diego, CA-based real estate information service states: “The median price for a (Bay Area) home fell year-over-year for the 16th consecutive month, as “distressed” sales rose to the highest level since early last year—”.   Statistics in the article show that Marin County bucked this trend, with a 4.6% increase in prices over last January’s results, and sales unit volume up 9.8%.

However, Marin’s own MLS year-to-date (YTD) statistics show these figures may be a bit deceiving. YTD single family residence (SFR) average sold prices are up  from last year’s YTD $848,172, to $960,535 as of February 14, while unit sales increased about 27%, from 132 to 168. Condominium sales, on the other hand, are down from 2011′s YTD figure of 63 units, to only 52 as of 2/14, off about 17%. This number actually represents a slight improvement  from our last report , when condo unit sales were off 20%. Condo year-over-year prices also down, with average sold price at $320,237 vs. 2011′s average YTD sales price of $349,992.

Regarding the current statistics, article quotes DataQuick President, John Walsh as saying “This is also the time of year we caution people not to try to read too much into the statistics. The winter numbers are based on a smaller pool of buyers and they haven’t proved very predictive.” That may be, but the reality is that right now, Marin County SFR prices and sales are up, and condo sales and prices are down— an important distinction and essential information for buyers and sellers. Current Marin County housing inventory continues to be extremely low. Percentage in contract on under-$1million SFR’s and condo’s is nearing 50%. Good, turn-key new listings are frequently going into contract quickly, often in their 1st week on the market and, not infrequently, for over asking price. Lots of all-cash deals are making it tougher for buyers who need loans, especially FHA or VA buyers, to land the properties they want.

Days on Market (DOM) for SFR’s down from last February’s 142 days to 133, while condo’s about the same as last year at this time at 153 days vs. last year’s 154. Sellers take note: Stale, overpriced properties that sit on the market while fresh, new, well-price listings zoom out the door skew these numbers to the high side.

Activity in local real estate offices is brisk and agents more optimistic than in quite some time, many thinking that 2012 will be the year the market starts to emerge from its slump. Time will tell!

Advice of an experienced local REALTOR who knows your neighborhood is invaluable in this market. Please call me if you are thinking of buying or selling!

Source: Fred Anlyn, The Anyln Report, Coldwell Banker, 2/17/2012

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Real estate activity is very fluid. In only a few months’ time, a town can change from being a “buyer’s market” to a “seller’s market.” It depends on supply and demand and price point.  Interestingly, the third quarter mirrors the first quarter, not the second quarter. There are six towns that are considered a “neutral” market (a balance of supply and demand) and five town that are considered a buyer’s market (more homes for sale than buyers, a benefit to buyers). The other two towns in Marin are considered a “seller’s market” (more buyers than homes on the market, a benefit to sellers.)

By price point, not much has changed since the beginning of this year. The low end of the market place remains in a seller’s or neutral market, and the high end of the market ($1.5 million and above) remains in a buyer’s market.

Below are two charts that provide an overview of the market conditions for the past three months. For example, the market is in the buyers’ favor if they are looking in the $1.5 – $2 million dollar range. However, if they’re looking in Greenbrae, they’re looking in a seller’s market since demand is very high there right now. It is also interesting to note that typically the more days on market, the lower the selling price. The towns that are in a seller’s market have a much closer listing price and selling price.

Opportunities abound in real estate right now (low prices, low interest rates) but a variety of factors come into play when you’re deciding where to buy or when to sell. I strongly recommend that a seller or a buyer carefully review the sales of homes by price point and town in order to negotiate the best price possible given the market conditions.

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Real estate activity has been busy this summer with more homes coming on the market than listed in the spring time. In April there were 1215 homes for sale compared to July with 1572 homes on the market (a 30% increase.) Roughly 30% of the homes are in contract, indicating a balanced or “neutral” market. In neutral markets, typically, interest rates are affordable and the number of buyers and sellers in the marketplace are equalized. The scales don’t tip in either direction, meaning the market is normal without experiencing volatile swings.

Agents have seen an increase in multiple offers and all-cash buyers this summer. When homes are priced competitively or below market value, they sell very quickly, often with multiple offers. If they’re not priced well, they tend to sit on the market for quite some time. However, selling real estate still depends on location, condition of house and price.

Many of my clients ask me, “Have we hit the bottom?” Robert Shiller, MacroMarkets’ chief economist and co-founder, recently said, “A significant majority of our panelists believe that the bottom for home prices arrived in the first quarter or will arrive sometime before year-end. Despite persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and unprecedented housing market dysfunction, almost two-thirds of the panelists see the U.S. residential real estate market as at an historic turning point.”

Although no one can predict the bottom, real estate has picked up significantly this summer which gives us all hope that real estate is improving.

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San Rafael leads with the highest number of sales in the first quarter of 2011, and Kentfield beats Belvedere’s average sale price. It is important to keep in mind that these are average numbers and that within each town the average price per square foot will vary considerably depending on location, condition of the house and seller motivation.

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