By Gina Kemsley of Terra Mortgage Banking

Mortgage Bonds are getting a boost today on news that a Debt Ceiling contingency plan is being brought forth by the Treasury Department. This good news is moving rates lower. The Treasury’s plan would guarantee present holders of US debt will receive interest payments on time before the Treasury makes any other payments — even if the debt ceiling is not raised.  As a result The Bond market is sensing the government will do whatever it needs to avoid an outright default – hence the positive rate movement.

INDUSTRY NEWS

On October 1st, the temporary maximum loan limit for conforming (FNMA & FHLMC) mortgages and FHA insured loans is scheduled to drop to a maximum of $625,500 for most Bay Area Counties (Sonoma: $520,950, Napa: $529,950).

As the expiration nears, the market will focus more and more on jumbo financing and we want you to know that Terra Mortgage Banking is one of the few (if only) North Bay Mortgage Bankers who underwrite our own jumbo loans in-house up to $1.5M.  This means your jumbo loan will receive the same expedited service you have come to depend on from Terra for your conforming loans.

Bottom Line: Terra’s expedited closing times give Realtors and their clients a competitive advantage when writing offers. Please contact Gina Kemsley today with questions or helping with getting a loan.

CURRENT INTEREST RATES | JULY 29, 2011

CONFORMING RATES
($200,000 – $417,000) 0 POINT
• 30 Year Fixed: 4.500% (4.58% APR)
• 5/1 ARM: 3.125% (3.20% APR)

JUMBO RATES
($729,751 – $2,000,000) 1 POINT
• 30 Year Fixed: 4.875% (5.02% APR)
• 5/1 ARM: 3.250% (3.39% APR)

CONFORMING (HIGH-BALANCE) RATES
($417,001 – $729,750 cap by county) 0 POINT
• 30 Year Fixed: 4.625% (4.69% APR)
• 5/1 ARM: 3.375% (3.44% APR)

RATE TRENDS
Rates are DOWN compared to last week.
Rates are DOWN compared to last month.
Rates are UP compared to one year ago.

Gina Kemsely, Terra Mortgage Banking can be reached at 415-464-3144 or gkemsley@terramb.com

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By Gina Kemsley of Terra Mortgage Banking

“SLOW DOWN… YOU MOVE TOO FAST.” Maybe the economic recovery is taking acue from these 1960′s lyrics by Simon and Garfunkel, as the economic recovery seems to be in a sluggish state at the moment. And while it doesn’t leave too many Americans “feelin’ groovy,” there are some amazing opportunities at hand in housing. Here’s what you need to know about the economy and housing industry – along with one sure thing about the current situation.

Volatility was extremely high last week – not just in the financial markets, but also in the economic reports and economic outlook. The big news of the week was the official Jobs Report, which came in well below expectations. In fact, in the private sector alone, the report indicated that only 83,000 jobs were created in May – and that number was almost 100,000 less than expected!

Although the Hourly Earnings component of the report came in a little better than expected, the overall report was just plain bad. Even for a market hungry for good news, there was no way to spin this report. Now the markets will have to wait and see if this was a one-off bad report and just a bump in the road to recovery… or if things have indeed slowed down once again.

Manufacturing slowing?

New data on the manufacturing sector of the economy also indicated a possible slowdown, as the Chicago PMI and the ISM Index – which both measure manufacturing – came in below expectations.

Rumors of a bailout lower the US Dollar.

In news across the pond, reports came out last week that Germany is putting together a plan to bailout Greece. The plan would “kick the can down the road” a little longer for Greece, allowing them more time to figure out a strategy to get their debt in order. As a result of these bailout hopes, the Euro was strengthened and the US Dollar dipped lower. Remember, a softer US Dollar helps US Stocks, as US companies benefit from stronger exports with a weakening Dollar. But a lower Dollar isn’t so good for Bonds, so this news stalled the rise of Bonds early last week.

Home prices still very affordable.

Moving from Europe back home to the US, we also received new data last week on home prices across the country. According to the 20-city Case-Shiller Home Price Index, prices were down 0.8% in March. Overall, foreclosures and bank-owned sales continue to weigh on housing – and are expected to do so for a couple more quarters. That said, the housing market is very localized, so only a local real estate professional can help you understand where home prices are at in your community – let me know if you need a referral to someone great in your area.

One thing’s for sure…

If you or someone you know is considering purchasing a home or refinancing, this is an ideal time to see how you can benefit from the current market conditions. Home prices are extremely affordable right now and home loan rates are near historic lows.

It only takes a few minutes to look at some options that fit your unique goals and situation. Call or email today to see how you can benefit from the current situation!

FORECAST FOR THE WEEK

After last week’s volatility, the markets receive a bit of a reprieve – with no major reports due out until mid-week. Here are some reports to watch, followed by some news items that may impact Bonds and home loan rates in the days ahead:

• The Fed’s Beige Book will be released on Wednesday. The Beige Book contains anecdotal information on the current economic and business conditions. Although some people consider the Beige Book to be a lagging report, it can serve as a helpful indicator of the Fed’s policy decisions. It reflects data from bank reports, as well as interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources. After the volatility and negative news last week, this report will be as important as ever.
• The Jobless Claims report comes out Thursday. Last week, Initial Jobless Claims were within expectations, so it wasn’t a horrible reading. That said, the disappointing Jobs Report demonstrates that employment is definitely still a concern, so the markets will be watching the Jobless Claims report closely this Thursday.
• Also on Thursday, we’ll see the Balance of Trade report, which focuses on exports and imports. Remember, a negative balance of trade – or a deficit – occurs when imports surpass exports. Rising deficits can be reflective of increased consumption, which can be a sign of a strengthening economy.

Please contact Gina Kemlsey of Terra Mortgage Banking at 415-464-3144 or gkemlsey@terramb.com for questions or more information.

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By Gina Kemsely, Terra Mortgage Banking

WHEN IT RAINS, IT POOR’S… With the US already facing tough decisions over its national debt, the credit rating firm Standard and Poor’s last week cut its credit outlook on the US from stable to negative. Standard & Poor’s also said the US’s AAA credit rating could be cut within two years, if headway isn’t made in closing the budget gap. This is important because countries have credit ratings, just like individuals.

But what does all this mean? Let’s break it down…

First of all, it’s important to note that the downgrade to the credit outlook was a long time coming, and Traders in the pits even joked that S&P is late to the party with this call. For more information about different countries credit ratings – as well as your own state’s credit ratings – check out this Credit Ratings Link.

All joking aside, this is a serious issue, as the last thing the US wants to endure is an outright credit downgrade. That would make the interest expense on the US debt even more burdensome – and, remember, we are all on the hook for this debt and the carrying costs.

But if this was a long time coming, what sparked the change in outlook? The S&P cited the wide political divide amongst Congress as a major hurdle to meaningfully lower the federal budget deficit. Both parties want to lower the deficit but there is stark disagreement on how to get there. Hopefully, the S&P’s actions will spark a fire in Congress to get serious and get something done.

How does this issue impact Bonds and home loan rates?

The national debt concerns won’t be addressed easily, especially when you remember that the country is approaching the debt-ceiling limit on May 16th. So in the immediate future, this will make for more volatility in the markets as headlines gyrate both Stocks and Bonds. Bonds are in an even tougher spot in the long term – and here’s why:

First… if the US government is successful in taking action to lower the budget deficit and avoid an outright credit downgrade, then we should expect a longer duration of accommodative Fed monetary policy, as the Fed doesn’t want an economic slowdown to recreate a “deflationary” environment. If things do slowdown significantly, we may start hearing debate for a QE3 (or a third round of Quantitative Easing), which would not be good for Bonds and home loan rates.

Second… if the US debt received an outright downgrade, it would be really bad for Bonds. As it stands now, this doesn’t seem likely and you shouldn’t be overly alarmed. But, it’s important to understand what is at stake here. The bottom line is that with some extra belt tightening as a result of this issue, we could expect to see slower economic growth in the future, as government spending would have to slow immensely to help close the budget gap.

That said… home loan rates remain historically low right now. However, there are a lot of headwinds for Bonds down the road and last week’s credit outlook downgrade was just another one.

Now’s the time to learn more about these issues and see how you can take advantage of the current low home loan rates and affordable home prices. It only takes a few minutes to look at your specific situation.

FORECAST FOR THE WEEK

This week will be jam-packed with economic reports that can have a big impact on the markets and home loan rates:

• We’ll see more housing news this week with the New Home Sales report right away Monday morning, followed by the Pending Home Sales report on Thursday.
• Consumers are also in the news this week. First, we’ll see the Consumer Confidence report on Tuesday, followed by the Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday. Both those reports give us some insight into how confident consumers are in the economy. Second, we’ll get a look at Personal Spending and Personal Income on Friday – which provide insight into the financial picture of consumers.
• The Federal Reserve holds its FOMC meeting this Tuesday and Wednesday, with the release of its Policy Statement coming Wednesday afternoon. As always, what the Fed says could impact home loan rates.
• Speaking of the Fed, we’ll see the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation this Friday in the Personal Consumption Expenditures report.
• We’ll also get a read on the economic recovery with Wednesday’s Durable Good Orders, which gives us an update on consumer and business buying behavior on big-ticket items that are designed to last for an extended period of time, like furniture, televisions, appliances, vehicles, copy machines, and so on.
• On Thursday, the markets will see the latest report on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – which is the broadest measure of economic activity – as well as Friday’s Chicago PMI, which is a good indicator of overall economic activity.
• The Jobless Claims report also comes out Thursday. In the latest week’s report, Initial Jobless Claims fell but still remained above that pesky 400,000 level as the job market continues to be a thorn in the side of the economy. Until we can see a pattern of unemployment claims well below 400,000, we will not see a significant fall in the Unemployment Rate.
• Finally, on Friday the Employment Cost Index (ECI) will be released. The ECI is one way to evaluate wage trends and the risk of wage inflation, as well as possible price pressures. This is important to the housing industry because if wage inflation threatens, it is possible home loan rates will rise through Bond prices dropping.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

Bonds hovered in a tight range and were unable to improve much last week due to rising Stocks and inflation concerns.

Those two elements only add to the headwinds for Bonds and indicate that now may be the ideal time to take advantage of low home loan rates. Call or email to see how you can benefit by acting now.

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

For more information, please contact Gina Kemsley of Terra Mortgage Banking at gkemsely@terramb.com or 415-464-3144. 

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By Gina Kemsely of Terra Mortgage Banking

“It’s a small world after all…” That notion was especially evident last week, with both the news in Japan and the Middle East impacting our markets. Here’s what happened, and what the impact was on home loan rates.

The first thing to understand is the concept of “safe haven trading.” At times of global unrest and uncertainty, like with last week’s nuclear crisis in Japan and the ongoing fighting in Libya, Traders will park their money in “safe” investments like our Bonds. And since Bonds such as Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) are tied to home loan rates, when Bond pricing improves, our home loan rates can improve… which is what we saw last week.

But it’s also important to understand how incredibly volatile this situation is. A “safe haven trade” is just that… a trade, which is short-term. Should events around the world become more stable, this safe haven trade can unwind very quickly… with Bond prices and home loan rates worsening as a result. This is similar to how the market reacted at the end of last week, when Libya declared a cease fire to fighting after the United Nations declared a no-fly zone.

Another thing to note is that Bonds and home loan rates are facing some additional headwinds that could hamper their improvement. First, if Japan sells some of their Treasury holdings to help finance the recovery and reconstruction, like they did in 1995 after the Kobe earthquake, this could spur a sell-off in Bonds overall, which would cause Bonds and home loan rates to worsen.

Second, we cannot overlook the impact of inflation… which is the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates… both here and overseas. Not only is China struggling with inflation even though they have raised rates and tightened lending requirements multiple times over the past few months, but last week both our Producer Price Index (which measures inflation at the wholesale level) and our Consumer Price Index were hotter than expected.

The bottom line: If inflation is allowed to grow, it can be very difficult to rein in and control… and this will hinder improvement in home loan rates. And, if the situations in Japan and the Middle East stabilize or improve, we could see further unwinding of the “safe-haven” buying of US Bonds… which will also hinder improvement in home loan rates.

If you have been thinking about purchasing or refinancing a home,  email Gina Kemsely at gkemsley@terramb.com at to learn more about how you can benefit.

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LAST WEEK IN REVIEW by Gina Kemsely of Terra Mortgage Banking

“Fear comes from uncertainty,” wrote the poet William Congreve. Last week, however, the markets were moved by fear and by uncertainty that were unrelated. On the one hand, unrest in the Middle East drove up Oil prices and pushed investors into the safety of Bonds – while on the other hand, fear of inflation limited the gains that Bonds experienced. To see how those elements impacted home loan rates, let’s take a deeper look at each.

First, the global unrest in the Middle East continues to impact the markets. The protests that started a few weeks ago in Tunisia and Egypt have now spread to Bahrain, Yemen and Libya. Libya is of particular concern to the markets, since it is the largest holder of oil reserves in Africa.

With the thought of Oil fields at risk and with no foreseeable resolution in the near term, Oil spiked as much as $12 a barrel higher last week – climbing over the mark of $100 per barrel. Remember, high oil prices aren’t good for anything; they’re tough on the economic recovery, and they’re inflationary. And in terms of your wallet, the recent spike in oil has only just begun to translate to pumps across the country, so you can expect to see higher prices in the coming weeks.

In addition to higher Oil prices, the unrest is creating fear and doubt in Traders’ minds about what might happen. And when Traders are uncertain, they tend to move money into the relative safety of Bonds, which offer lower returns but also lower risks. This flood of money into Bonds – including Mortgage Bonds – helps prices and home loan rates improve. And sure enough, last week Mortgage Bonds traded higher, as protests and uncertainty permeated throughout the Middle East.

On the other hand, those gains in Bonds have been limited by fears of inflation down the road. That’s because investors demand a higher yield now to offset their concerns that future inflation will eat into their returns. That was evidenced by the tepid buying demand in last week’s Treasury auctions. And as the economy continues to slowly expand and inflation fears grow, rates will gradually move higher over time.

The bottom line is that global unrest has been a driving force behind improvement in the Bond market… and that it may continue to do so in the coming weeks. But at the same time, it’s important to remember that those gains are fleeting and have even been limited by inflation fears – so the positive picture for Mortgage Bonds and home loan rates won’t last long.

Now’s the time to look at your unique situation and take action. It only takes a few moments to sit down and see how the national and international news may help you benefit from a refinance or the purchase of a new home. Call or email today to get started. Or forward this newsletter on to someone you know who may benefit from today’s historically low rates.

FORECAST FOR THE WEEK

In addition to monitoring the unrest in the Middle East, we have a big week of economic reports on our hands – with the big news coming on Friday! Here’s a highlight of what to watch:

• The week starts off Monday morning with reports on Personal Spending and Personal Income, as well as Pending Home Sales. The Pending Home Sales report comes after last week’s Existing Home Sales release, which came in better than anticipated… but the National Association of Realtors who reports all these numbers is under fire for possible overestimation in the past few years.
• On Monday, we’ll also see the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, which is the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation. Remember, inflation fears have grown and have been limiting the gains that Bonds experience. In fact, the inflation reading in last week’s GDP release was hotter than previously reported – and that coincides with the recent Consumer Price Index trend, which saw a hot 0.4% month-over-month gain during each of the past two months. So the markets and the Fed will definitely be keeping a close eye out for the PCE report this week!
• Manufacturing reports will also hit the newswires this week. On Monday, we’ll see the Chicago PMI, which reports on manufacturing in Chicago and is a good indicator of overall economic activity. Then on Tuesday, we’ll see the ISM Index, which is the king of all manufacturing indices and is considered the single best snapshot of the factory sector.
• The big topic of the week will be employment. First up is the ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday, which measures non-farm private employment, followed by another round of Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday. In last week’s report, Initial Jobless Claims were reported lower than the expectations. Normally, this would have applied pressure on the Bond market, but again the unrest in the Middle East is trumping this data.
• Finally, the busy week culminates with the highly anticipated monthly Jobs Report on Friday. This report features new data regarding job growth and the unemployment rate – needless to say, this report can be a big market mover!

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

Bond prices moved upward, which is good news for home loan rates. One of the major reasons for this movement was the ongoing unrest and uncertainty in the Middle East, which prompted Traders to move money into the relative safety of Bonds.

As a result, now is an ideal time to take advantage of the historically low home loan rates. If you or someone you know is looking to refinance or purchase a home, call or email to find out how you can benefit.

Please call Gina Kemsley for more information at (415) 464-3144 or gkemsley@terramb.com.

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