Third Quarter Review of the Marin Real Estate Landscape

Posted by amyhyde on October 19th, 2011

Real estate activity is very fluid. In only a few months’ time, a town can change from being a “buyer’s market” to a “seller’s market.” It depends on supply and demand and price point.  Interestingly, the third quarter mirrors the first quarter, not the second quarter. There are six towns that are considered a “neutral” market (a balance of supply and demand) and five town that are considered a buyer’s market (more homes for sale than buyers, a benefit to buyers). The other two towns in Marin are considered a “seller’s market” (more buyers than homes on the market, a benefit to sellers.)

By price point, not much has changed since the beginning of this year. The low end of the market place remains in a seller’s or neutral market, and the high end of the market ($1.5 million and above) remains in a buyer’s market.

Below are two charts that provide an overview of the market conditions for the past three months. For example, the market is in the buyers’ favor if they are looking in the $1.5 – $2 million dollar range. However, if they’re looking in Greenbrae, they’re looking in a seller’s market since demand is very high there right now. It is also interesting to note that typically the more days on market, the lower the selling price. The towns that are in a seller’s market have a much closer listing price and selling price.

Opportunities abound in real estate right now (low prices, low interest rates) but a variety of factors come into play when you’re deciding where to buy or when to sell. I strongly recommend that a seller or a buyer carefully review the sales of homes by price point and town in order to negotiate the best price possible given the market conditions.

Town Stats Type of Market Status of 2nd Qtr
Belvedere Buyer same
Corte Madera Neutral same
Fairfax Neutral same
Greenbrae Seller Neutral
Kentfield Buyer Neutral
Larkspur Neutral same
Mill Valley Neutral same
Novato Seller Neutral
Ross Buyer same
San Anselmo Neutral same
San Rafael Neutral same
Sausalito Buyer same
Tiburon Buyer same
Source: BAREIS as of 9/30/2011
Seller’s Market – 40% or more of homes are in contract
Buyer’s Market – Less than 25% of homes are in contract
Neutral Market – 25 – 40% of the homes are in contract
Price Point Type of Market Status of 2nd Qtr
0-$500,000 Seller same
$500k-$900k Neutral same
$900k – $1m Neutral Buyer
$1.5m – $2m Buyer same
$2m – $3m Buyer same
$3m – $4m Buyer same
$4m + Buyer same
Source: BAREIS as of 9/30/2011

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