The San Rafael real estate market can be looked at in two distinct geographic areas – Central San Rafael (94901) and Terra Linda, Lucas Valley and Marinwood (94903).

The 94903 market has improved overall more dramatically, primarily because the homes and condos are in a more affordable price range (under $1 Million) as a whole. In Central San Rafael, that same under-one-million-dollar price range has also firmed up, but 94901 also has more one-million-plus properties. The average sale price for all of San Rafael has increased from $638,000 at the end of 2009 to $658,000 as of June 2010. The average sale price for Marin County was $853,000 at the end of 2009 and is currently $912,000. The San Rafael average appears to be moving up more slowly than the Marin County average. However, San Rafael also features quite a bit more house for the money and the average price-per-square-foot in San Rafael right now is under $400/per-square-foot.

It seems by the conventional wisdom of some, and statistics, that the under-one-million-dollar market has hit what is either the beginning or middle of the “bottom of the market.” Because there are not enough buyers in the higher San Rafael price ranges ($1 million to $1.5 million), it is a slight buyer’s market and the over $1.5 million market is leaning towards an extreme buyer’s market. There are similar trends throughout most of Marin County.

In Marin, the foreclosure and “distressed sale” market has had its largest impact in San Rafael and Novato. For example, between February of 2009 and February of 2010, San Rafael has seen the sale of distressed properties (bank owned, auctioned properties and preforeclosure homes) increase by about 34%. A bit of a silver lining … in the past 6 months, those numbers have begun to decrease. It seems that lenders are looking to find more creative ways to provide loan modifications and assist owners in working things out and therefore not losing their property.

On another positive note, we are seeing strong demand for well-priced properties in all price points and most particularly in the under $750k segment. For homeowners who have seen prices roll-back, it has been somewhat shocking and has taken an adjustment. For buyers, this roll-back is an opportunity to buy at prices they thought were long gone.

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What is the state of our economy? Take your pick from economists who say we are recovering to those that say we are going to double dip. In the end, it is probably a little bit of both. On the good side, the stock market is still gaining traction and will be positive by year end. The housing market will be hot in some areas (thank goodness for the SF Bay Area and places like Marin County) but cooler in others – it depends on supply, demand, the lending environment and inventory. (Read on below for Marin County statistics and an in-depth look at some key local markets.) On the other side, unemployment will continue to be negative and probably stuck in double digits and the deficit will continue to grow, which both bode for a slower recovery.
 
So, which is it? Seems the economy is all of the above. If you’re a big business you are trotting: revenues are up, you are lean and mean and cash rich. If you are a small business or a city, county or state you are stuck:  loans are tough to come by, revenues are down and services more demanding. What’s steady and boring? Probably the old maxims that all this too will past and we will finally get through this recession.
 
In the meantime hold on – it’s yo-yo economy with some uncertainty, highs and lows and thus choppy waters ahead. But America is a huge ship and we will survive!

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