Good news on the real estate front continues as we review the first half of 2010. Spurred by government aid, the California housing market is on the mend. A special $10,000 state tax credit for home buyers to purchase a property after May 1, 2010 is aiding a slumping market that hasn’t seen home prices as low as they got in decades. Experts believe the bottom of the housing market in California is in the rear-view mirror, and the level of affordability in Marin remains strong.
Despite the expired federal tax credit, home sales should continue on a stronger pace as a result of the state program, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be steady. Low mortgage rates and distressed property sales are projected to sustain a recovery in the state’s markets. But the improvement won’t happen quickly.
Home sales have improved over the last two years, but we still have a long and winding road to get through the tough economic environment. California still has to recover from high unemployment, one of the most critical elements in a housing market recovery. There’s also talk about a double-dip recession which would thwart the recovery in the housing market should that materialize.
However, despite the cautionary tone of the future, it is evident that this past year has seen a strong increase in sales, particularly at the higher end of the market, as shown by the graph below. Sales of home financed with home loans for jumbo mortgages has fueled part of this increase. According to Bamboo Consulting Inc., these loans accounted for 25.5% of the Bay Area’s home sales last month, the highest since 25.8% last October. The presence of those high-end sales in the statistics pulled the June median up as well.
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| UNIT SOLDS |
< $500K |
$500K – $900K |
$900 – $1.5m |
$1.5 -$2m |
$2m – $3m |
$3m -$ 4m |
$4m+ |
| First Half of 2010 |
318 |
497 |
207 |
62 |
55 |
23 |
9 |
| First Half of 2009 |
299 |
353 |
141 |
42 |
34 |
12 |
5 |
| % Change |
6% |
41% |
47% |
48% |
62% |
48% |
80% |
| Source: BAREIS as of January 1 – June 30, 2010 |
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